The winter of 1812 defeated Napoleon – we’ve survived the Covid-19 overture, but let’s not succumb to ‘Victory Disease’, Daily Maverick, by Bobby J Moroe, 18 October 2020
History often repeats itself. As South Africa relaxes after moving into lockdown Level 1, we need to guard against the complacency that led Napoleon Bonaparte and his troops into their ‘Moscow moment’ more than two centuries ago.
The term “Victory Disease” is used to describe what happens when a nation allows a series of victories to lead it to complacency or arrogance.
An historical example of “Victory Disease” and its consequences is depicted in the 19th century artwork by Adolph Northen, in which Napoleon Bonaparte and his soldiers retreat from Moscow after invading Russia in 1812. The horrendous scenes in the painting depict lifeless bodies of soldiers on the ground; others are seen wounded, wandering around next to their horses with rifles.
Napoleon was deceived by the Russian withdrawal, an act which made him complacent, believing that victory was certain.
When President Cyril Ramaphosa announced, on 16 September 2020, the decision by Cabinet to ease the lockdown rules to Level 1, he did so with the benefit of history – that it often repeats itself – and South Africa can easily witness its “Moscow moment” in the same way as Napoleon and his troops did, exactly two centuries ago. It was far from exclusively rocket scientists’ understanding that the easing of lockdown to Level 1 was not the end of Covid-19 – the pandemic knows no lockdown levels.
In his address, the President cautioned that, “Our greatest challenge now – and our most important task – is to ensure that we do not experience a new surge in infections. Several countries around the world have been hit by a ‘second wave’ or a resurgence of infections. A number of these countries had passed the peak of the disease and had seemingly brought the virus under control. Some of them had even lifted most of the restrictions on economic and social activity. In many cases, the second wave has been more severe than the first. Several countries have had to reimpose a hard lockdown.”
The Citizen dated 13 October 2020 carried an article titled, “Heed the warning over Covid-19”. This article amplified the president’s message and served as yet another alarm about what seems to be an element of complacency in many communities. The piece reminisces about the good old days, the times of BC – Before Covid-19:
“Back then, we used to buy booze in normal shopping hours, we could stay out all night, we could smoke as much as we wanted, we could shout, cheer and even sing at sports events or concerts. We could hug and kiss other human beings outside our immediate circle… In short, there were a lot of freedoms we took for granted. Now, we mask up and stay two metres apart while religiously washing our hands and sanitising the environment around us, or, we should, in theory.
“Looking around today, we see parties, drinking, no social distancing or mask wearing and a general ‘thank-goodness that’s over’ attitude. But it isn’t.”
Now, this means that our present-day conduct indicates that we could possibly be suffering from “Victory Disease”. Our people have adopted a Bonapartean approach to handling this pandemic, allowing deceptions to dominate their thoughts. With the prominence of this approach, surely our “Moscow Moment” will be upon us sooner rather than later?
One could be forgiven for thinking we seem to be a nation that forgets easily, with a very short memory about what this pandemic has cost us in the past six to seven months. Our people are still not alive to the reality that this sneaky pandemic knows no levels, it pounces like a leopard on a warthog in the wild.
For the better part of this year, life has not been the same for many South Africans as their day-to-day lives changed from the known to the unknown. Since reports of the first case surfaced on 5 March 2020, the number of cases began to increase, our government was compelled to act and people had to brace themselves for unknown terrain.
Overall, the approach by the South African government proved to be very effective in ensuring that the spread of the virus was contained. During this period, many people lost their lives. Many fell ill and recovered, but still bear the psychological scars of this experience. We also witnessed how interest groups took our government to court for what they termed unconstitutional lockdown.
Today we have forgotten the challenges of food supply in informal settlements, altercation between civilians and security forces, that houses and vehicles were repossessed because people lost their jobs. Not so long ago we were all living under constant fear of the unknown, and often asked ourselves if we would survive the next day, but today, we seem to have forgotten this entire traumatic experience.
Given all the hardship we have been through, it will be imprudent for us to display tendencies of “Victory Disease”, which seem to be slowly creeping in among us.
Minister of Health Dr Zweli Mkhize has also warned against complacency over South Africa’s Covid-19 situation, as the country could experience a second wave of infection after moving to lockdown Level 1. The call by the minister for people not to feel complacent and disregard precautionary measures is born out of the visible disregard for compliance. He said, “Before we get the vaccine, we can’t rest… So, South Africans need to know that Level 1 does not mean that everything is over. Instead, Level 1 is aimed at rebuilding our economy.”
Ours is to ensure that, as we rebuild the economy, we must do so responsibly without losing the lives of those who are key to that rebuilding. We need the skills, human capital and commitment of those who have committed themselves to saving our economy – the least we can do is to protect ourselves in order to protect them.
In the Covid-19 world order, just as in the post-Covid-19 world order, we will not be expected to revert to our normal lives with the same norms and traditions; life has to be different from what it used to be prior to the pandemic. Writing in Daily Maverick on 26 June 2020, I asked, “Will life ever be normal again in my beloved Soweto”. I highlighted the changes we had to make in our lives, and also lamented how these changes would disrupt our lives forever – how physical human contact, the very fabric of our society, would be on death row.
Today, nearly four months after that article was published, media reports indicate that South Africa is preparing for a possible resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic. Why am I not surprised! In recent days, in particular, since the beginning of Level 1, the country has witnessed a slight increase in confirmed cases, and some researchers argue very strongly that South Africa could face a resurgence between December 2020 and January 2021. Do we adopt a wait-and-see approach, or get ourselves accustomed to compliance with the necessary protocols? According to the latest figures, on 5 October 2020 there were 926 confirmed cases, compared to 2544 cases reported five days later on 10 October 2020. This is a sharp increase of 1618 cases in the space of five days. If this is not worrying to us as a nation, then we have a far bigger problem.
My colleague who has recently returned to Nigeria after a short vacation in South Africa whispered in my ears that when one arrives in South Africa, particularly my hometown of Soweto, there is no semblance of a pandemic – people go about their daily lives as if the pandemic is over. This is the type of behaviour that will take us back to the fifth global spot, or even higher, since second waves of the pandemic are known to be more lethal than the first.
In recent reports, France, during the second wave, recorded a total of 20,000 cases in 24 hours, the highest number of cases ever recorded since the start of the pandemic. The sooner we learn from the experiences of countries such as France, and observe best practices in order to avert the seemingly imminent resurgence, the better.
According to a report by the World Health Organisation (WHO), countries reporting the highest number of cases in Africa in the past few days include: South Africa 10,670 (85% of African cases), Ethiopia 5419 (43%), Kenya 1208 (10%), Uganda 1065 (9%) and Algeria 1031 (8%). Twenty-two countries recorded a decrease in new cases compared to 31 countries in the previous period, with 13 of them registering a decrease of more than 20%: Botswana (100%), Congo (100%), Burundi (78%), Rwanda (62%), Mauritania (59%), Lesotho (58%), Mozambique (56%), Niger (43%), Cameroon (42%), Zimbabwe (38%), Côte d’Ivoire (37%), Malawi (27%) and Madagascar (20%).
At the time of writing this article, data indicated that South Africa ranked the highest in the rate of infections on the continent, and eleventh in worldwide rankings. This is a significant improvement compared to the fifth spot the country held for a long period.
We have to defeat this pandemic with all our might, and resist the temptation to let our guard down. In the words of Benjamin Franklin, “how few there are who have courage enough to own their faults, or resolution enough to mend them”.
It is never too late to adapt to the new normal. We must do so now and distance ourselves from the torture of “Victory Disease”. DM
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2020-10-18-the-winter-of-1812-defeated-napoleon-weve-survived-the-covid-19-overture-but-lets-not-succumb-to-victory-disease/
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